• aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    Archive link here https://archive.is/kJlQW

    China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there’s nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it’ll be Antoniv all over again.

    The Taiwan government isn’t trying to unify the “two Chinas” anymore as Chiang Kai-shek and Sun Li-Jen have been dead a long while. The PLA or what’s left of it does not want control over mainland China and the current ruling Taiwanese government are happy to create 60% of the worlds super conductors. In fact they have Thermite and other destructive charges setup in the fabs in case china invades. There’s other fabs in the US or EU they can spin up with engineers and personnel that will likely be swept away by the US or Japan or South Korea.

    This is saber rattling from the Pentagon and a distraction from Pooh Bear’s own internal problems. Nobody wants war in Taiwan most of all the Chinese.

    However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.

    Edit: sorry if it wasn’t clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it’s so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It’s terrible that they’re taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine… A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.

    Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:

    https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

    https://www.newsweek.com/china-taiwan-blockade-invasion-us-navy-pacific-fleet-admiral-samuel-paparo-1749139

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_between_the_United_States_and_the_Republic_of_China

    • vzq@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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      2 months ago

      China has no incentive to invade Taiwan.

      I hope you are right, but your post is giving me big “herr Hitler is not going to invade Poland” vibes.

      • aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        There isn’t the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.

        Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.

        When I get to my computer tomorrow I’ll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.

        • TheWeirdestCunt@lemm.ee
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          2 months ago

          Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it’s not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn’t start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.

      • theneverfox@pawb.social
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        2 months ago

        Pooh bear found out his missiles were fueled with water, and some of his launch silos never existed. He did a purge of the military and got real quiet about launching an invasion

        Now they’re showing their special forces threading lines of needles and riding electric skateboards.

        I’m not saying China wouldn’t invade Taiwan, but I really don’t think they’re going to in the near future

      • Kusimulkku@lemm.ee
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        2 months ago

        Or how we were all convinced that Russia wouldn’t invade until it actually happened

        • aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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          2 months ago

          Pasted from my response to another post

          Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.

          There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight

          The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.

          Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.

          Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.

    • Aurenkin@sh.itjust.works
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      2 months ago

      Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.

      I personally thought Ukraine wouldn’t be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia’s interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.

      So let’s hope that it’s all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.

      • aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.

        There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight

        The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.

        Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.

        Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.

          • HomerianSymphony@lemmy.world
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            2 months ago

            Yes.

            Not a single government (not even Taiwan’s government) has ever said that Taiwan is not part of China.

            I understand why you’d think otherwise if you get your understanding of the situation from online discourse. But here’s the thing: Most online discussion is coming from people who don’t know what they’re talking about.

            • Flying Squid@lemmy.world
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              2 months ago

              And not a single government, not even Peru’s government, has ever said that Peru is not part of Swaziland.

              Strangely, that’s not the same thing as all nations agreeing that Peru is part of Swaziland.

              • HomerianSymphony@lemmy.world
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                2 months ago

                From 1945 to 1971, China was represented at the United Nations by the government in Taipei, with almost universal recognition. It would be very odd for any country to say that Taipei (and hence Taiwan) was not part of China at that time.

                And if Taiwan was part of China from 1945 to 1971, surely it must be part of China now, because there have been no significant political changes in China since then.

                Both the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei recognize Taiwan as being part of China. Each government claims to be the rightful government of all of China, including Taiwan. (However, the government in Taipei only has effective control over Taiwan and a few islands, while the government in Beijing has control of the mainland.)

                Since 1979, the USA has had a policy of “strategic ambiguity” where they do not say that Taiwan is part of China, but they clearly recognized Taiwan as part of China up until then, and they have not made any statements changing that position.

                • Flying Squid@lemmy.world
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                  2 months ago

                  if it’s ambiguous, how can they recognize it as part of China at the same time? That’s the opposite of ambiguous.

                  • HomerianSymphony@lemmy.world
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                    2 months ago

                    Yeah, it’s not actually very ambiguous. It’s more confusing than ambiguous.

                    If you ask if the government in Taipei is the legitimate government of China, the USA will say no.

                    If you ask if Taiwan is an independent country, the USA will say no.

                    But if you ask if Taiwan is part of China, the USA will avoid answering, even though that’s the only option left.

        • OfCourseNot@fedia.io
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          2 months ago

          Wouldn’t the separatists be mainland china? Honest question. Like there’s continuity from the former china government to Taiwan’s, the people’s republic is the newest entity.

            • OfCourseNot@fedia.io
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              2 months ago

              I’m not talking about who’s ‘rightful ruler’ or not. The roc was a country and the communist revolution took a part of the territory and made it into the prc (a new country) while the roc still exist in the remaining territory. That’s the definition of a secession. I was just pointing out one of the holes in your analogy.

              Now that you took the time to write that I have a couple of questions. Was the white terror an ethnic cleansing? I might be under informed on the matter but I don’t know anything about any ethnic groups targeted in particular. Your last paragraphs imply that the sovereignty and territorial questions about Taiwan and the People’s Republic aren’t a settled matter for the whole world (except maybe the prc). Are there many voices claiming for the Taiwan government to be the ruler of mainland China anymore? Or any territorial ambitions other than staying an independent island nation?

              • cecinestpasunbot@lemmy.ml
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                2 months ago

                Chiang Kai-shek’s claim to a legitimate ROC government are tenuous at best. He basically used his position to launch a right wing coup against the unity government and attempted to purge it of all left wing elements. Claiming legitimacy when you’ve basically used force to try and take full control over a government is par for the course for fascism. That’s why I don’t believe the CPC demonizes the ROC prior to Chiang Kai-shek. They still holds Sun Yat-sen, a key founder of the ROC, in high regard.

                Also, IIRC most of the dissidents in Taiwan were mostly people who lived there or who were indigenous to the Island prior to the KMTs arrival. As such, the white terror did involve suppression of a Taiwanese ethnic identity.

    • Monument@lemmy.sdf.org
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      2 months ago

      I don’t disagree with the points you’re making in terms of military explanations.

      I think the U.S. definitely wants to provide Taiwan with all manner of drones, as they can use that as a test bed for their own drone efforts. Even if it’s unlikely to actually occur, I think the specter of China getting involved militarily is an opportunity the U.S. is keen to exploit that will allow them to deploy and test drone systems on the dime of one of their strategic partners, rather than solely at their own expense.

      But I also think that China is working on a diplomatic/economic win in Taiwan.
      With the recent passage of the … oh, I can’t remember the name of it … the law that allows China to arrest people who criticize China online that will apply to Chinese citizens who live/work in Taiwan, or to Taiwanese citizens who have reason to visit China, it means that there is a pall of fear over criticizing China in Taiwan.
      If folks can’t criticize China, it skews the narrative in Taiwan. A few more laws like that, some social/election influence campaigns (in the U.S. and Taiwan), and I could see a gradual undoing of Taiwanese-U.S. relations, and perhaps even a voluntary joining of PRC in a few decades.
      I’m sure, though, that the U.S. is doing the same thing in Taiwan, to try to keep the relationship tight. So it sorta comes down to who can do the best data mining, influence campaigning, and crafty diplomacy.

      All armchair speculation on my part, but that’s how I think it’ll shake out. Less of a military conquest, and more of a cultural conquest.

    • frezik@midwest.social
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      2 months ago

      China has no incentive to invade Taiwan

      Thank you for explaining you know nothing about geopolitics right at the start.

        • frezik@midwest.social
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          2 months ago
          • China has an old ideological incentive
          • Xi might want an invasion to hide his own failures
          • China wants TSMC ** TSMC might be rigged to explode, but China might be willing to go, anyway, in a “if we can’t have it, nobody can” strategy
          • China doesn’t want an unsinkable aircraft carrier in range of its mainland
          • China wants to extend its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone ** Which itself has implications for how the US can deploy carriers around China

          You can argue that none of the benefits add up to the cost of an invasion–I would tend to agree–but saying China has no incentive is just dumb. In particular, ideological reasons may be weighted much higher by Chinese leaders than any outsider could guess.

          • aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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            2 months ago

            Thanks for the reply.

            I’m quoted using such black and white language from my original post so I’ll have to leave it there even though I know it smacks of smug rhetoric, but I said it so it’ll stay.

            I do have counter points to each of your points in my original post except for the unsinkable aircraft carrier, however pardon the pun but that ship has sailed. But you know that as you referenced the killswitches TSMC has.

            That last point I think we agree. With the recent purges in the military and a lame duck president with a pending election that’s exactly what I think is happening here. Especially since they’re not really moving any of their “third navy” into formation for defilade and screening so it is still, as it stands, a loud and frightening bluff.

    • papertowels@lemmy.one
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      2 months ago

      Ultimately, if China truly has no incentive to invade Taiwan, why not just recognize it as a sovereign nation? They haven’t, they likely won’t, and that to me is enough evidence to show that there is reason to invade - we as armchair strategists simply don’t know them.

      Does China benefit from the current arrangement in any way that would motivate them to keep the status quo?

      • aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        Yes absolutely they benefit from the current status quo.

        First is the nebulous status Taiwan has in global politics the Chinese government uses it as a smoke screen for all sorts of complaints and a great source for demanding concessions and justifying their actions. Especially against the" colonial powers in the West that are oppressing the Taiwanese."

        spoiler

        Which there is colonial oppression from the west but I wouldn’t look to Taiwan as a victim in that regard, South America and Central Africa however are a different story. Where the PRC have their own history of colonial actions but that’s not the topic of this comment.^

        https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8dy437pdno

        For the PLA there’s an outsized boogyman with Taiwan that they can beat the war drums for to drum up support for increased military presence. They have war games frequently, almost every year, to counter the “threat of the US and their hold over the poor Chinese bretheren on Taiwan”

        Much like how politicians aren’t often incentivised to fix the potholes in the roads or solve other simple issues, what will they campaign on next year if the roads and bridges are fixed this year? The PLA use Taiwan to justify arms buildups and Naval investments

        Note these exercises are from a year ago and you’ll see a long history of such actions if you look for them https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-plas-strategic-deterrence-a-case-study-of-the-april-2023-exercises-toward-taiwan/

        https://news.usni.org/2023/10/31/chinese-military-corruption-wont-slow-pla-expansion-panel-says

          • aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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            2 months ago

            Yeah, as far as PRC external communications go, it’s usually 50/50 if they mean the exact opposite of what they’re saying. It’s a very very very complicated situation, however China gains a lot more from a separate Taiwan with a nebulous international status. The US and to a smaller extent Japan and the EU both benefit from a threatened Taiwan as well actually, as it is likely suppressing the price of TSMC.

            https://www.ft.com/content/b452221a-5a82-4f5d-9687-093b9707e261

            The US could do a lot for Taiwan if they were to have a unified and consistent message on the diplomatic status in Taipei. That would take away a lot of the grey area and would force China to present a direct and clear response. However that’s not in the best interests of American business who rely on cheap and exploitative labor in mainland China, and well as Smedley said, War is a Racket.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Is_a_Racket

    • papertowels@lemmy.one
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      2 months ago

      China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade

      Do you have sources that backs up that claim? Just because they didn’t do so in a sabre rattling exercise doesn’t mean they can’t. Afaik their navy is actually quite capable, and actually it’s the largest in the world by number of vessels.

      As of 2024, the PLAN(PLA Navy) is the second-largest navy in the world by total displacement tonnage[18] — at 2 million tons in 2021, behind only the United States Navy (USN)[19] — and the largest navy globally by number of active sea-going ships (excluding coastal missile boats, gunboats and minesweepers)[20][21] with over 370 surface ships and submarines in service,[22] compared to approximately 292 ships and submarines in the USN.[23]

    • papertowels@lemmy.one
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      2 months ago

      And even if you get a beach head there(on the West side), it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains.

      Idk much about Taiwanese coastline, but your wiki article states:

      The terrain in Taiwan is divided into two parts: the flat to gently rolling plains in the west, where 90% of the population lives, and the mostly rugged forest-covered mountains in the eastern two-thirds.