• vzq@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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    2 months ago

    China has no incentive to invade Taiwan.

    I hope you are right, but your post is giving me big “herr Hitler is not going to invade Poland” vibes.

    • aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      There isn’t the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.

      Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.

      When I get to my computer tomorrow I’ll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.

      • TheWeirdestCunt@lemm.ee
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        2 months ago

        Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it’s not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn’t start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.

    • theneverfox@pawb.social
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      2 months ago

      Pooh bear found out his missiles were fueled with water, and some of his launch silos never existed. He did a purge of the military and got real quiet about launching an invasion

      Now they’re showing their special forces threading lines of needles and riding electric skateboards.

      I’m not saying China wouldn’t invade Taiwan, but I really don’t think they’re going to in the near future

    • Kusimulkku@lemm.ee
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      2 months ago

      Or how we were all convinced that Russia wouldn’t invade until it actually happened

      • aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        Pasted from my response to another post

        Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.

        There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight

        The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.

        Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.

        Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.