Some proper knife edge seats in there.
Ashford on a 0.08%. If 40000 people turn up, that’s a margin of 32 people.
Or is that 16, since it’s a swing? Either way, 10pm onwards will be interesting!
Some proper knife edge seats in there.
Ashford on a 0.08%. If 40000 people turn up, that’s a margin of 32 people.
Or is that 16, since it’s a swing? Either way, 10pm onwards will be interesting!
The danger is that if enough people think this, some may not turn out, thinking “yeah Labour has this in the bag, I don’t need to vote”, which may lead to higher-than-anticipated results for the tories.
There is a case for that, but I think the main driving force for turnout in this election will be the fact that people are just sick of the Conservatives and want to punish them.
Yeah definitely, I don’t think that they’ll actually win. Just that they’ll likely perform better than these polls are suggesting, in part because of the reason I suggested above, and in part because of the more general trend over the last decade of conservatives exceeding polling expectations (possibly due to the so-called “shy tory” effect).