• 10 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • It is, population size has essentially no effect on statistical significance of a sample (other than amplifying it as you start to sample most of the population). 20,000 people is massive and will give you sub 1% confidence ranges. The difficulty is ensuring you have a representative sample (no one does) and correcting for the biases you do have in your sample.

    Do you really think the huge polling industry is unaware of basic statistics and your dividing the sample size by the population would come as a revaltion to them?

















  • I just dont see it. All the indicators are showing a siesmic labour victory and have been for a long time. Not just voting intention but “who do you want as a prime minister” “who do you trust on the economy/NHS/cost of living”, local elections, by-elections, a fractured right wing vote, poor recent economic performance, an extremely bad campaign by Sunak highlighting the worst aspects of the tories.

    I just dont see how all that doesnt result in a huge Labour victory, the tories have even shifted their campaigning message to “dont let labour win too big and give them a blank cheque to do whatever they like”